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SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
Sept 2026
Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 ppt at the 1-yr horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the 3-yr horizon, to 3.9% and 3.3%, respectively. Expectations remained unchanged at the 5-yr-ahead horizon at 3.0%.
https://nyfed.org/4wGc2Sd
$SPY at highs / $HYG at lows. The setup is back.
The last 5 times stocks sat within 1% of its 52-wk high while Junk Bonds sat within 1% of its 52-wk low, the next quarter lagged 4 of 5 times. Median: -3.5% vs. +3.7% typical. n=5.
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